Egypt
Tackling The Global Challenges of The Future
Dr.
Mohsen M. Zahran
Prologue
People
are the wealth of nations. There comes a time when destiny
calls upon the peoples of all nations to confront the
inescapable challenges, and make vital brave decisions,
that will shake the Present and shape the Future of
the forthcoming generations.
The time for Egypt is right now. The place is right
here.
The cry out for reshaping the destiny of the "cradle
of human civilizations" is loud, clear and echoing
in the corners of Egypt, our Holy land.
This
overview of the present status quo is revealing, alarming
and propelling. It is intended to urge everyone to question,
ponder and act with caution, vision, balance and motivation.
Though the Arab world is at present in a state of abeyance
at a critical and decisive period of history, at the
crossroads of many intersecting circles of the North
and the South, the East and the West, the Rich and the
Poor, the challenges are multitudinal but revealing,
the difficulties are enormous but exposed, and the dilemmas
are staggering, but bare stripped in the open..
There are no illusions and no confusions? The will of
change and the power of human awakening and recognition
will shape destiny and the course of history. The spark
of propulsion has been ignited..
From
the Gulf to the Atlantic Ocean, the entire Arab region
has endured with inspiring patience, the two devastating
World Wars, as part of the theater of their operations,
which wasted away a substantial share of the Arab financial,
natural, and human resources. During the last two trying
centuries, the Arab destiny was entangled and intertwined
with those dominant world powers. The Arab countries
were divided in opposing camps and divided parties,
with Egypt, its beacon, subject to threats, conflicts,
and crises, while her younger sisters on the other hand,
were self absorbed and anchored. The pace of development,
and slow progress must be inspired, ignited and stirred
to move from stagnation to ascension
A
Global Overview
During the WTO Ministerial Meeting in Doha in November
2001, the rich nations on one hand, and the developing
countries on the other, revealed the facts, and deceptive
cards were set on the table in the what so called "Green
Rooms", developed countries intended to respond
to the grievances and protests of the poor and helpless.
Fortunately, true evidence has emerged, exposing the
accelerating political pressure mounting in concert
on developing countries, drawing the Hippocratic inevitable
conclusion, "Some win, all the rest lose".
Unfortunately, the bright facts of the status quo were
too glaringly compelling.
Whether
in Seattle, in Doha, in Rio, in Kyoto, in Johannesburg,
or in any other place on earth, with the evident lack
of a pre-set Agenda, solid commitments. huge accountabilities,
and an active plan of action, all efforts are in vain,
or as some critics like to call it " medieval,
the deja vu's", all over again.
The
tide is rising, the surge is urging each and everyone,
to wake up and act ! now !
As
a matter of fact, while globalization, on one hand,
has actually promoted certain economic equality, and
reduced poverty a little, as an example, the change
that has been accelerating the enormous growth of initially
poor countries, such as China and India, however it
widened the gap between the haves and have-nots, thus
increasing inequality between and within nations such
as in the Philippine in Indencia, in Venezuela and in
Argentine, and within nations in the East and West.
The
Arab Region's Dilemma:
From the Bottom (Revelations) to the Top (Initiations)
The September 11th, 2001, a shocking global earthquake,
that has shaken the corners of the entire world, revived
earlier ideas of " clash of civilization"
by Francis Fukuyama, Samual Hentigton and others, which
were stressed all over again.
All
of a sudden, the Arab countries, with Islamic roots,
or origins were the first suspect and accused of crime,
violence, even classified security risks, amplified
by certain based media coverage exasperating the situation,
inflaming, and exaggerating feelings at both sides.
Forgotten or eclipsed have been the fundamental contribution
of Islamic and Arab civilization to world knowledge
and the advancement of human civilization during the
last centuries. this time of trial, recriminations and
indictments, the United Nations Development Program
published in June 2002 its long awaited "Arab Human
Development report 2002, thus creating new horizons
for opportunities for a new future.
The
Report, which was cosponsored by the Arab Fund for economic
and social development, has equally sent certain tremors
in the corners of the Arab countries, because of its
shocking statistics, revelations, assessments, and conclusions.
The western media and institutions rushed to expose
their own assessments and conclusions.
The AHDR, which covers the present situation in 22 countries
from the Atlantic to the Gulf, seeks to point out glaringly
and confront bravely a growing range of political, social,
cultural, economic, technical and environmental challenges
for the lack of proper education, poor health, unemployment,
poverty, economic deprivation, helpless youth, to peace
and human freedom, women empowerment participation and
security. Despite the alarming indications, and warning
signals the report stresses certain encouraging developments
and successes over the past three decades.
Overview
of the Arab Human Development Report 2002
Despite stagnation of the political and economic conditions,
coupled with unrest, and conflicts in the region, the
report focuses ample light on specific positive developmental
aspects such as:
* Reduction of infant mortality rate by 2/3 for children
ages less than 5 years;
* Increase of daily calories intake by individuals.
* Increase of population served by potable water;
* Adult literacy has doubled during the last three decades;
On
the negative side, the Report points alarmingly, that
the average income of the Arab citizen is the least
in the world, despite oil revenues, coupled with continuing
decline of GDP per capita and low Human development
indicators. The Report attributed these distressing
indicators to absence of political freedom, marginal
women participation in political and economic development,
alarming information technology illiteracy rate and
poor education. The Report reveals astonishingly, that
Certain interest groups in the region benefit from the
current status quo, and resist development!!
Egypt in Focus:
Difficulties, Problems, and Challenges
As the cradle of human civilization, the greater Arab
country in terms of its central role, leadership, population
and economic activity and as the cultural, religious,
touritic hub of the Arab world, Egypt has carried the
burden of sacrificing its own development needs in favor
of its younger Arab brothers states,. It has dedicated
its resources in fighting five wars during the last
50 year, at the time when other Arab countries concentrated
on building their own economics, and furthering their
own physical developments, in self appraisal and unquestioned
devotion toward helping others.
The
indicators in AHDR are a cause of concern for the future
Human development in Egypt. This overview has became
mandatory to examine, to evaluate and to point out the
directions and horizons for a better future for Egypt,
which She has long been deserving.
Here
are some of these disturbing indicators in the Report
of the AHDR 2002:
* The average age is 66 years in Egypt as compared to
70 years in Jordan, Oman, and Bahrain. This also reflects
on heath care, standards of living, as indicated expenditure
on health, which is 3.7% of GDP in Egypt as compared
to 10.1% in Lebanon and 6.5 in Qatar.
* Illiteracy is 45, 4 % in Egypt, whereas it is 10,8%
in Jordan, 14,4% in Lebanon, and 13% in Bahrain. In
fact, except for Mauritania Egypt ranks as the highest
in illiteracy in the Arab world.
* In the Information and communication technology field
(ICT) Egypt also is one of the last with 12 computers
/ 1000p, as compared to 140 in Bahrain, 136 in Qatar,
46 in Lebanon and even Mauritania, least developed Arab
country boasts 27 pc. / 1000 p. AS to Internet sites,
Egypt has only one site /1000p.
as
compared to 12 sites /1000 p in the UAE. As to the number
of users, there are 7/1000p in contrast to 167 users
/ 1000 p in the U.A.E.
A
pathetic indicator of the lack of regional integration
is reflected in the fact that inter regional trade in
the Arab world amounts to nearly 30 billion, whereas
the trade between the Arab countries and western world
is tenfold ($ 300 billion ??!).
It
is therefore of paramount importance to maximize regional
trade and economic cooperation.
It
is high time that Egypt, concentrated on the fulfillment
of its own national aspirations, and focuses upon the
uplifting of the conditions of its own population, who
have waited for too long with patience to fulfill their
overdue rightful needs and accomplish their well deserved
hopes for a better future.
It
becomes of paramount importance, that the order of priorities
must be re-examined and a visionary new strategy and
national renaissance plans be formulated and realized
in order to address the changing needs and demands,
of a brave new world, that could accomplish their long-
awaited dream.
National
strategy in this direction should be adopted with proper,
scientific, financial and technological resources. Rewards,
compensation, incentives must be guaranteed. A comprehensive
integration and capitalization upon natural and human
resources is indispensable to meet the current challenge
of beleaguered development.
The
example of integration, cooperation and partnerships
among geographical entities in Europe, the Americas
and Asia only highlight the necessity for the right
atmosphere and conditions for achieving such regional
integration at all levels in the Middle East region,
and, by all means, such inter and intra regional cooperation,
partnerships and integration in trade and in other facts
of the economic sphere as is already evident in the
successes of multi-national, transcontinental companies,
which assume a substantial share of global economy.
On
the other hand, there is a persistent demand for an
intellectual consensus among Arab thinkers, and scholars
to agree upon basic common national, cultural and intellectual
goals and objectives aimed at achieving a total Arab
renaissance and march. forward a brighter future disentangled
from traditional taboos, systems, archaic customs and
thoughts, indulging religious and spiritual values and
trends that can bridge the gaps of backwardness and
venture new frontiers befitting the new challenges in
today's world. This will necessarily require that we
stop blaming others for our ills and faults, and that
a western devious plot is orchestrated aiming at destroying
our culture and values.
A
radical approach is needed to face our own problems
and believe in cooperation to demonstrate to all, the
continuum of human civilization, in synchronization
with the differences of cultures, that should be invested
creatively for the good of all.
This
strategic creative approach should be capitalized upon
and that we need to benefit from the relevant experiences
and successes at other regions in advancing our own
developmental strategies and implementation.
International
Perspective, Overview and Conclusion
The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
held in June 1992, in Rio de Janero proclaimed the Rio
Agenda 21, a broad general program of recommendations
and actions by the world community underscoring new
ways of investing into main future on earth to reach
sustainable development during the 21st century. The
recommendations included new ways and means of environmental
care, education, and sustainability toward achieving
a safer and just world, in which all life dignity and
is celebrated and upheld by all for all.
It
was agreed that the UN will convene after 10 years a
follow up conference in Johannesburg, South Africa,
in September 2002, to review, evaluate the implementations
by the member nations of the Agenda 21, and to recommend
a proper plan for action for the future, with greater
participation by the civil society and NGOs and citizen
groups, to become active partners, and to pressure their
governments and all institutions to be more concerned
and committed to implement the Agenda 21, given the
disappointing performance and inaction during the last
decade. The Johannesburg Earth Summit Agenda was aimed
at fostering discussions of specific environmental issues,
as such Climate, oceans, water, forests, energy, bio
diversity, agriculture, among others. These will be
based upon the Rio Agenda 21 declaration signed by 168
countries.
The
disturbing climate change and the Green house effect.
which have resulted in massive floods, disasters, destructions,
fatalities and losses that exceeded $ 10 billions in
Europe, the America and Asia underscore the necessity
for implementing Agenda 21, Kyoto protocols and all
environmental treaties to save our planet and to achieve
a sane sustainable development for a better, safe future
for mankind everywhere. The procrastination and "cold
feet" and lack of commitment by the US and similar
industrialized countries can only lead to a global catastrophe,
which will harm all people everywhere.
The
Human Development plans, policies, and programs and
projects, at the global. Regional, national and local
level must incorporate the Agenda 21 recommendations
to achieve a sustainable development, out to invest
wisely for the future of the coming generations. The
thrusts of these plans will incorporate all aspects
related to the protection of Biodiversity, conservation
of water resource, and expansion of agriculture in the
war on hunger and lack of shelter, the protection of
forests, and oceans, and the air from pollution and
green house gases, as well as better education and health
for all people everywhere. There is no escape form the
glaring realities and the ultimate challenge.
Conclusion:
Future Outlook and Horizons
Nations change their course only after a radical awakening
that shakes their conscience and institutions at the
roots. This fundamental shift must be a basic consensus
among all social, intellectual and cultural directions
on a national social strategic plan on the shape of
the future to come for which all parties and factions
subscribe and to which they are committed.
This
Plan springboard should include necessarily political
partnership and participation of all major directions
and colors in a pluralistic democracy to contribute
to and share in plotting the path ahead and shaping
the future.
It is necessary to ensure participation of all social
groups, factions, and beliefs in governance, decision
making, management, and implementation at all levels
and sectors.
The
plan is mandatory to respect and observe that the rule
of law is upheld and safeguarded by all no matter what
or who.
The
protection of private property, investments and personal
and corporate rights be supported and defended by all,
through the protection and patronage of the human rights.
The provision of opportunities and possibilities for
the fulfillment of human identity and aspirations under
protection of the law needs to be maintained. Implementation
of the amendments of human and spiritual values, especially
in Islamic countries should be upheld and shielded,
in addition, to religious beliefs, in unity, integrity,
solidarity, cooperation, encouragement of morality,
ethics and goodness.
The
engagement of the individual and family on one side,
and the civil society and government organizations on
the other side, should lead to shared shouldered responsibilities
and joint implementation of national goals with government
civil societies and individuals at all levels.
The
eradication of illiteracy, the improvement of health
care, the upgrading of educational contents and standards,
the greater participation of women in all walks and
levels of life, the recruitment and employment of all
marginal groups, regardless of age, sex, creed, color,
or ethnic origin, are primary springboards of any sensible
and dependable national plan.
The openness towards other cultures and experiments
is a necessary element of any national resurrections:
other cultures or civilizations must not branded as
good or bad, hostile or enemies.
Human development must benefit from and cooperate with
developments world wide, based on interest and mutual
benefits in the age of globalization.
Horizons
of a Fulfilling Strategic and National Comprehensive
Human Development
The horizons and thrusts of a comprehensive human development
should be translated into various spheres and axes of
action and operations:-
*
At the strategic regional level:
Because of Egypt's geopolitical pivotal role, Egypt
should pursue and become an active partner to cooperate
and interact with the European, Mediterranean, Arab,
African, and Islamic circles with balanced priorities
and interests.
*
At the economic development level:
It is fundamental that industrial, touristic, and agricultural
developments, with emphasis on natural expansion be
emphasized. The aim is to adopt a national development
plan, strategy, which aims at a balanced redistribution
of the population away from the present narrow corridor
development along the Nile River. New untapped regions
East and West should be focused upon to reach development
of 25 % of Egypt, instead of the current 9%. A new national
circulation and transportation network should support
the new development regions in three dimensions, North
and South and East and West.
Meanwhile,
the unemployment problem is crucial. According to the
AHDR, open unemployment in the Arab regions, has been
estimated to be 12 million 1995. This figure is expected
to rise to 25 million by 2010.
As a matter of fact, 500,000 are added to the job market
annually in Egypt alone, and there is no hope for their
employment, given the current 2 per cent annual growth
of the Egyptian Economy and the 2.2 per cent population
increase, estimated by the World Bank declarations.
*
At the Women empowerment Level :
According to the Arab Human Development Report, a deficit
in women's empowerment has manifested itself in women's
political and economic participation, which remains
the lowest in the world in quantitative terms. Women
occupy only 3.5 percent of parliamentary seats in Arab
countries, compared to 11 per cent in Arab Sub Saharan
Africa. One in every two women can neither, write or
read, and in many countries of the region, women suffer
from violence (more than 40%) from unequal citizenship
and unfair legal entitlements.
*
At the Population and development levels :
There is a persistent need to adopt a more effective
family planning program, for all development improvements
are consumed by the spiral of the population bomb",
keeping the hope of advancement in abeyance or distant.
The current population of seventy million people in
Egypt is expected to reach 100 million in the year 2020.
The Ministry of Health and Population is working at
present toward controlling the population increase in
a five year program.
*
Water resources level :
The next war will certainly be triggered by water shortage.
Egypt must conceive its water resources limited annually
to its share of 55 millions m3 to meet demands of increase
of population, agriculture, urbanization and industry.
*
At the education level :
A very important propeller of a sane development lies
in the upgrading of educational standards and quality
of education, elimination of illiteracy and its interactive
synchronization with the national development goals.
The
current brain drain to western countries may be stemmed
by offering better opportunities at home that is more
lucrative, a matter which would attract distinguished
Egyptian professionals abroad to come back home to help
in enriching research on development efforts and operations.
Without a national strategic plan for education reform
program, there is a little hope accelerate forward.
*
At the medical and health levels
Although medical and healthcare have substantially improved,
yet there is a great deal of work and projects that
must be implemented. Human development is dependent
entirely on the two legs: education and health. Generally
speaking, population and civil society participation
are vital for the present central top to bottom directions,
which are insensitive and irresponsive to actual needs.
Through such participation the flow of information and
fulfillment of needs could move from the bottom - upwards.
*
At the environmental level :
Although new oil and gas reservoirs are steadily discovered,
but still with growing population development needs,
Egypt may not be able to export oil or gas in the very
near future. New sources of renewable energy through
solar, wind or wave or geothermal sources must be tapped
to meet development needs. Through using regional and
international power grids, Egypt could continue to cooperate
with the countries in the region in maximizing the use
of its energy output.
* At the Information and communication technology levels
The current HDI show Egypt trailing some Arab countries
in this field. It is most crucial that the current deficiencies
and shortages be overcome, in order to match and interact
with the information revolution. It has become a major
foreign exchange resource in China, India, and Israel.
Egypt is trailing behind. Silicone valleys in Sinai
or elsewhere must not compete now in a declining market
that is suffering a tough competition. She is a comparatively
a late comer. New horizons in this growing field must
be studied and focused upon to accomplish an assumed
advantage in the world market.
*
Reflections :
In conclusion, the bells of alarm have tolled, and the
call for reawaking and self appraisal and commitment
is loud and clear. The targets are well defined and
the challenges are awesome, but the path forward is
well known. The resources are available, and the will
to change the destiny and the history is strong and
mighty. There is no alternative but to march forward
to a brave horizon of unlimited potentials and promises.
Dr. Mohsen Zahran, The Former Director of the Bibliotheca
Alexandria is professor emeritus of Urban and environmental
planning at Alexandria University. He was Expert to
UNESCO, UNECEF, UNCHEF, UNEP, ENESCWA, and other international
and regional organizations.
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