Energy
Future and Sustainable Environmental Development:
Reflections on Rio, Kyoto and Johannesburg
Dr. Mohsen Zahran
Introduction:-
The
convening of the World Summit on Sustainable Development
in Johannesburg, South Africa, in September, 2002 (also
known as Rio+10) is of a strategic global importance
at a time when the international community is facing
a multitude of challenges, problems and crises in terms
of globalization environmental degradation, unfair human
development, security, injustice, deprivation, terrorism
and socio-economic turmoil. Ten years earlier, many
troubling questions have been raised since the 1972
U.N. Stockholm Conference. These were discussed in detail
during the United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development (UNCED) (also known as the Earth Summit)
which was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June, 1992.
The
Rio Earth Summit was pivotal in bringing global attention
to the understanding that our planet's environmental
problems were intimately linked to economic conditions
and problems of social injustice, instability and security.
Rio emphasized that social environmental and economic
needs must be met in balance, synchronization and complementarity
with each other for sustainable outcomes in the short,
medium and long terms. It showed that poverty and decline
of national economy reflect negatively and seriously
on the environment and the human conditions. Similarly,
the abuse and deterioration of the environmental resources
and situation cause human suffering and economic decline.
It was glaringly clear to all participant governments
and NGOs that local actions and decisions may induce,
or trigger, global repercussions of far- reaching dimensions
and consequences.
The
UNCED proclaimed the Rio Agenda 21, a broad general
program of actions by the World Community demanding
new ways of investing in our future to reach global
Sustainable Development in the 21st Century. Its recommen-dations
included new ways of environmental concerns, education
and sustainability, toward achieving a safer and just
world in which all life has dignity and is celebrated
and upheld by all for all. To achieve Agenda 21, the
U.N. Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) was
created, and the Earth Summit was held during the U.N.
General Assembly in June, 1997 adopting a comprehensive
program for the further implementation of Agenda 21,
as well as the work plan for the Commission for five
years 1998-2002. Johannesburg 2002 World Summit was
to review the accomplishments since Rio, 1992 by the
participating nations, their adoption of National Sustainable
Development Strategies as agreed upon, the adoption
of conventions preventing loss of biodiversity and ensuring
human rights. It also was to exchange assessments of
experiences, to address new situations, to reach a consensus
and to evolve a common commitment and to trigger an
action program for the acceleration towards the achievement
of the Agenda 21 goals. The 2002 Earth Summit discussed
revolution in technology, biology, energy and communications
that has changed the world since 1992. Like the Rio
Summit , Johannesburg was also a forum of interaction
and excursions between NGOs and citizens' groups ideas
and concerns from all walks, fields and regions, to
meet and work together for a greater global environmental
commitment in complementarity with governmental efforts.
Having
reviewed the events agenda and activities, the recommendations
of Johannesburg Summit 2002, and having reviewed in
detail the UNDP Human Development Report 2002, the Arab
Human Report 2002, the UNCTAD 2002 Report overview and
the International Nuclear Council's Committee Report,
Visions and Strategies for the first half of the 21st
Century, it was abundantly clear that energy lies at
the root of most global problems facing environmental
development, sustainability, security, stability, peace
and globalization. It has become the common denominator
and propeller of most global crises, problems and urgent
issues. The World Summit 2002 recommendations would
be worthless and pointless if common understanding,
commitment and concerted actions are not addressed agreed
upon and implemented vigorously by all.
Overview
of UN Resolutions on the Environment Energy and Development:
The summit's focused agenda aimed at festering discussions
of specific environmental issues such as climate, oceans,
water, forests, energy, agriculture, biodiversity as
well as new technologies, globalization and economic
conditions. These will be based upon the Rio Declaration
with its set of 27 universally-applicable principle,
to help guide international action on the basis of environmental
and economic responsibility. The Framework Convention
on Climate Change (FCCC) signed by 15 countries, intended
to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere. The Convention on biological Diversity
(CBD) was signed by 168 countries, aiming at the conservation
of biological diversity as well as the sustainable use
of the its components. In addition to the statement
of forest principles, which is intended to guide national
and international policy-making for the protection and
sustainable management of global forest resources, there
are many conventions, treaties and protocols, which
also require governments to take actions concerning
the safeguarding of the natural environment in the air,
water, oceans and land. Most of these declarations call
for greater adherence and commitment, while the most
decisive sectors affecting human and economic development
remain focused upon fresh water availability, agriculture
and energy. Future development, stability and security
shall be dependant primarily upon, and anchored to,
water, agriculture, food and energy. Out of these, the
energy future is now most critical for future social,
economic and environmental sustainability, the key theme
of Agenda 21.
Accordingly,
it is no exaggeration that Energy Future could be addressed
as the Earth Future for it fundamentally affects all
the contents in the constitution of Agenda 21. To implement
its recommendations, various U.N. Agencies and regional
commissions held annual meetings in preparation for
the Earth Summit to assess and evaluate the implementation
of the Rio Summit after 10 years. The consensus of these
meetings reports for Johannesburg was a comprehensive
overview that includes:
1- A strategic approach to influence decisions concerning
environmental uplifting, to propose avenues for strategic
action, to empower people to intervene for environmental
conservation and to stress environmental concern in
physical planning decisions. These would constitute,
but not limited to, the improvement of the implementation
of environment legislation, to integrate environment
concerns into other policies, to work in partnership
with NGOs as well as business, to engage greater citizen
and community involvement and participation.
2- In
conscious concern over the continuing climate changes
due to the greenhouse gases, the Kyoto Protocol should
be implemented by all signatory countries, especially
the major industrial developed countries in order to
reduce the greenhouse emissions by 8% by 2012 compared
to the 1990 levels, and by 20-40% by 2020.
3- In
restoration and protection of biodiversity, it was stressed
that the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems
be maintained and safeguarded by all. All nations must
cooperate in stopping the continuing loss of biodiversity
around the globe regardless of the level, or lack of
development. These efforts should include: stopping
desertification, protection and promotion of sustainable
development of forests, conservation and restoration
of landscape, protection of plants and animals from
ionizing radiation, protection of the soil, protection
and restoration of marine habitats and coastal regions
and support of research in the fields of biodiversity
and natural conservation.
4- Concerning
the topic of environment and health, certain springboards
have been proposed which include: the identification
of risks to human health, the introduction of environment
and health priorities in national policies and programs
banning the use of hazardous pesticides, implementation
of legislation on water, strengthening research on health
and the environment, the application of air quality
standards and enforcement of standards on air, water
and land pollution, as well as the adoption of standards
on water, air waste and soil protection standards policies
and programs.
5- Regarding
the management of natural resources and wastes, it was
agreed that all nations must abort policies and initiations
that the consumption of renewable and non-renewable
resources does not exceed the carrying capacity of the
environment. With regard to the waste of resources it
was recommended that waste reduction is affectivated
by 20% by 2010 and by 50% by 2020.
Future
Challenges and Horizons:
The current global rate of population increase is adding
100 million people annually to the 2001, population
of 6.5 billion. This increase is occurring mainly in
the poorer countries, while the population of the rich
countries is steadily decreasing. This world population
will be nearly doubled by the middle of the 21st century
reaching approximately 10 billion people. The quality
of life is related to the national wealth, which is
strongly dependent on the use of energy. Now the citizens
of the affluent societies, due to the increasing energy
consumption and the higher level of the quality of life
it affords, enjoy healthier living, live longer and
happier, comparatively the less fortunate countries
suffer from hunger, disease underdevelopment, and debilitating
poverty,. They manage far fewer resources, and use about
one-tenth as much energy per person as compared to the
wealthier societies. Obviously, they need more energy
to overcome the present distressing scourges and underdevelopment.
Chemical energy from fossil fuel (coal, oil, gas) accounts
for 80% of global energy use. Fossil fuel use is projected
to increase. In fifty years oil reserves will support
this rising demand. However, there is a considerable
uncertainty about the amounts of both fossil fuels and
uranium that will be discovered in the future, while
there is a growing international concern and commitments
through the Rio Agenda 21, of 1992, the Kyoto protocol
of 2000, and the Johannesburg 2002 Declarations about
the adverse environmental effects of emissions and the
devastating greenhouse gases, global warming and proven
climate changes and global natural disasters. Accordingly,
it is of a paramount importance that the energy and
oil industries and research establishments continue
to develop options for future energy supply and new
renewable energy resources that are dean, environmentally,
friendly, affordable, dependable and promising.
The
Future of Renewable Energy
Among other available clean energy resources, hydroelectricity
is the only renewable energy used commercially, projected
to supply about 2% of the future energy demand, whereas
the biomass energy, a renewable chemical energy, could
be doubled to about 12% of future demand. While intensive
research is being intensified for other renewable energies
such as wind, wave, geothermal, solar or other, non
are yet in commercial and affordable use. The prospect
of harnessing the sun energy has spurred a number of
recent developments and advances that may lead in the
near future to economical solar energy. However, experts
argue that this renewable energy sources, recommended
to increase to 15% of the total energy use in the next
two decades, will not contribute substantially to global
energy consumption in the foreseeable future. However,
the final declaration of the second Earth Summit evaded
inclusion of this percentage.
In
consideration of development of fuel resource diversity,
environmental concerns factored heavily into electric
utility resource planning, renewable energy technologies,
through the use of biomass, geothermal, hydropower,
photovoltaic, solar or thermal. Wind or wave as possible
energy source are beginning to find their proper focus
in the utility resource arena. Special attention is
being given to economic, performance, environmental
impact and benefit dimensions of renewable energy resources
and technologies. Meanwhile, as "Technology Review"
asserts in its February 2002 issue, massive R &
D projects have concentrated on finding other sources
than fossil fuel to overcome air pollution from gas
emissions, and the subsequent global warming. Already
engines have been developed using hydrogen gas derived
from water, which gives clean energy to engines especially
to motor vehicles. The horizons of this renewable energy
resource are very promising and wide open to unlimited
potentialities and benefits. However, the cost of the
use of hydrogen is so far three times that of gasoline.
Serious R & D efforts, in view of the prototypes
developed by BMW using space rocket technology, coupled
with proper marketing, operation and maintenance networks
and other technicalities are yet to be perfected. In
his state of the Union address in January 2003, President
Bush stressed the US commitment to the development of
energy sources, especially hydrogen, for meeting the
present needs and future demands. "Technology Review"
reports in the August 2002 issue, that recent research
and development in the renewable energy source of wind
power has produced a wind turbine that takes in and
replaces profitably fossil fuels.
Similarly,
wave power research has lead to the invention of a promising
renewable energy resource for electric energy using
the tide movements which is also as promising and rewarding
for the production of a new cheap clean energy resource,
as proven by solar energy developments, have already
been demonstrated by MIT scientists (TR, Feb. 2002)
The
Nuclear Alternative :
Although there has been much fear and concern regarding
the use of nuclear energy, given Chernobyl and the Three-mile
island accidents, as well as the problem of disposition
of nuclear wastes, nuclear power accounts at present
to nearly 7% of the world energy needs, mostly in the
developed world. With the constraints of environmental,
psychological and human dimensions, and the limitations
of the fuel resources, the International Nuclear Societies
Council envisions that Nuclear power, based on the use
of mainly uranium and thorium, will be called upon to
provide as much higher percentage of the escalating
energy demand, especially for generating electricity,
which is economical, convenient to use, clean and comparatively,
and environmentally, more appealing. The dependence
on electric energy is increasing steadily. Accordingly,
the present demand for the construction of 30-50 1000
M.W. nuclear power plants annually will be nearly doubled
to about 100 GW. per year, by the middle of the next
century. However, due to the potential hazards international
and human fear, the topic of the use of nuclear energy
is emotive and fundamental to the future of nuclear
energy as a sustainable technology. With responsible
efforts made by the industry, studies have shown that
the safe disposal of radioactive waste technologically,
environmentally and economically is achievable. Convincing
decisions must be made especially with regard to the
green parties, civil societies and other NGOs, world
wide, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the technology
of safe handling of the disposal of wastes, balancing
risks and benefits in the public interest and the good
of humanity. Resolution of this issue will require the
cooperation, effort and determination of the industry,
regulations and politicians. The use of this technology
will lead to public reassurance on the safety of nuclear
energy, and a greater acceptance and implementation
of its usage.
The Energy future in Egypt is promising, especially
after the recent discoveries in the Mediterranean Sea,
the Western Desert and the Gulf of Suez. These discoveries
have increased the oil resources in May, 2002 to nearly
4 billion barrels of crude oil and 60 trillion cubic
feet of natural gas, 90% of which is near the Mediterranean
coast. This reassures the Egyptian energy future demands
during the next few decades. However, Egypt has been
emphasizing other renewable energy sources from hydroelectric,
wind and solar energy. According to the UNDP Arab Human
Development Report 2002, electricity consumption per
capita has risen from 380 Kg/cap in 1980 to 900 Kg of
oil equivalent/capita in 1999. GDP unit of energy use
(PPP US$/Kg of oil equivalent) has increased from 3.5
to 4.9. Energy production, thus, has risen from 1.45
quadrillion btu to 2.72, while energy consumption has
almost tripled from 0.08 in 1980 to 0.22 in 1999, which
has increased carbon dioxide emissions from 1.48 to
3.98 million metric tons of carbon equivalent in 1999
(1.7 metric tons/capita). To tackle this situation,
there is a greater need to implement quickly national
program and plan of action, aimed at expanding renewable
energy sources, including the nuclear plan, in order
to insure the energy needs and future demands of a comprehensive
and integrated human development, environmentally, socially,
economically, technologically and culturally. The future
of energy development and use in Egypt is also related
to capitalization on sharing resources and cooperation
with countries in the arab and mediterranean regions
through integrated electricity and gas networks, for
mutual strategic benefits and interests, within integrated
regional plans, projects and treaties.
CONCLUSION
In
conclusion, the future of energy is linked cardinally
to the future of sustainable development worldwide.
The Earth Summit of 2002 in Johannesburg has emphasized
the role of renewable energy in development in its final
Declaration. Although the conference participants have
expressed their disappointment at the achievements of
Agenda 21 since the UN Rio conference in 1992, there
has been an agreement among all participating nations,
youth groups and NGO that greater efforts and commitments
by all nations, organizations, corporations and individuals
to implement the Summit Declarations to save our planet
earth and to help alleviate grievances, injustices,
insecurity and violations by governments, institutions
or industries.
The challenges of sustainable human development are
abound, but the will to address the problems and overcome
the obstacles is determined. Certainly, the horizons
for a brighter, healthier and promising future for all
mankind, in both the developed north and the poor underdeveloped
south, are wide open and indeed unlimited. They shall
be truly enlightning and abundantly fulfilling, in which
all life has dignity, and is celebrated and upheld by
all for all.
Dr. Mohsen Zahran, The Former Director of the Bibliotheca
Alexandria is professor emeritus of Urban and environmental
planning at Alexandria University. He was Expert to
UNESCO, UNECEF, UNCHEF, UNEP, ENESCWA, and other international
and regional organizations.
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