Soapbox:

Survival at stake

By Mohsen Zahran

---

Negotiations among the eight countries sharing the Nile Basin on the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) have been stagnant since 2001. One can only be bewildered and concerned. The NBI should aim at the equitable distribution and management of Nile water among the countries without jeopardising the historical shares of Egypt and Sudan. These have been recognised as 55.5 billion m3 and 18.5 billion m3 respectively from the total annual Nile water revenue of 84 billion m3. Four southern countries, however, challenge the 50-year-old understanding and are demanding a greater share. This could be detrimental to Egyptian national security and interests, threatening Egypt's development and survival.

Moreover, the current Egyptian share of 55.5 billion m3 will not suffice to meet essential national hydraulic needs in the coming decades, given current consumption levels, lifestyles, urbanisation, and socio-economic development goals. By the year 2020 Egypt's population is expected to reach 100 million, which will require, at average human consumption levels of 400 litres/capita/day, in addition to the agricultural and industrial requirements, nearly 60 billion m3 of water. One would hope that the Egyptian position in the forthcoming meeting of NBI water ministers this summer in Alexandria is firm enough to insist on Egypt's historical share of annual Nile water revenue; that this share is fundamental to Egypt's strategic development, stability and security.

This week's Soapbox speaker is professor of urban planning at the University of Alexandria.