Figures speaking
Mohsen Zahran* looks into
what the latest census has to say about Egypt's future
Last month the Central Organisation for Public Census and Statistics
(CAPMAS) released the preliminary results of the 2006 census: 76.4
million, with nine million living abroad: a 24.3 and 44 per cent
increase since 1996, respectively. A comprehensive reading of these
figures will say much about Egypt's present issues and the development
agenda it should be adopting.
The first census in Egypt was conducted in 1882, at which time the
population was a mere 10 per cent of the present figure; 13 censuses
have since been conducted, roughly once every decade, and they have
certainly helped with city planning. It is important to note that,
should the population continue to grow by 1.8 per cent per year -- the
last Human Development Report figure, calculated from the rates in
1975-2006 -- it will reach 88.2 million by 2015. It is well to note that
in the same period, the figures for demographically comparable countries
like France, the UK, Germany, Iran and Turkey, grew by 0.3, 0.3, 0, 1.4
and 1.2 per cent, respectively.
Rural areas are inhabited by 57 per cent of the population (41
million); Egypt's urban population, currently 42.6 per cent, has dropped
marginally since 2004 (42.7 per cent); at 43.6 per cent it was also
higher in 1975, but it is expected to reach 45.4 per cent by 2015. The
current trend being one of immigration into cities, more urban expansion
and perhaps a greater number of cities will be needed in the next few
years. Contrary to popular belief, the male-to-female ratio is
51.1:48.9. Since 1969 the number of households has risen to 17.2
million, a 35.9 per cent increase; of these 7.5 million are in urban
areas, evidencing a 32.7 per cent increase for the same period. Yet with
an increase of 38.6 per cent in rural areas, the tendency to settle down
and start a family is evidently higher in rural areas. Excluding
unregistered marriages, the divorce has grown by 39.6 per cent in 10
years -- a significant figure, but not as significant as the media will
have us believe. This is one of the more interesting surprises held by
the census results.
Some 14 per cent of the population (10.7 million) are under the age
of six, while the age brackets 6-10, 10-15 and 15-60 make up 6.9, 10.7
and 61.9 per cent, respectively; in total, no less than 32 per cent of
the population are under 15; while, within the biggest and most
employable, 15-60 age group, 21.9 out of 44.9 million make up the
potential workforce, with only 19.8 million actually employed -- some
quarter of the whole population, as opposed to 60 per cent in more
advanced societies; this explains the difficulties in the way of
development, even though an increase in life expectancy to 74 and 76 for
men and women, respectively, points to improved medical care and perhaps
an altogether more effective retirement pension system.
Families too have grown smaller in size, with the average urban
family dropping from 4.2 to 3.9 members since 1996, and rural families
from 4.9 to 4.3 members. This should have implications for housing.
Literacy and education statistics tell a somewhat more disappointing
story, however, with 29.2 per cent of those over the age of 10 (16.8
million) unable to read and write, and some 884,000 out of 20 million
students dropping out of school during the decade. This would seem to
confirm the suspicion that, notwithstanding the number of university and
school staff (100,000 and 500,000, respectively), the education system
requires a complete rethink.
Unemployment has increased, too, but only marginally, from 8.9 to 9.3
of the labour market since 1996. This does mean that there are 2.4
million currently out of work, however: some LE100 billion are required
to bring unemployment to a safer rate of five per cent or lower -- with
an estimated LE100,000 per new job. Unemployment rates are hard to work
out, with estimates ranging from 10.5 per cent (the Central Accounting
Organisation) to 11.2 per cent (the Central Bank). Cairo remains the
first choice of residence, with some 20 per cent of the population
living in Greater Cairo, and many parts of the country very sparsely
populated: North Sinai, Matruh, the Red Sea, Al-Wadi Al-Gadid and South
Sinai, for example, have no more than 0.34, 0.32, 0.29, 0.19 and 0.15
per cent. Population is particularly spared near the borders, which has
implications for national security. Certainly, government efforts in the
direction of improving infrastructure, services and job opportunities
outside Cairo are not misplaced. With 32 per cent of the population
under 15, more should be spent on education, sports, and social care.
Indeed if we assumed that the pre-job age is 25 -- not a far- fetched
assumption -- we should be thinking about 42 per cent of the population
in those terms.
The 2006 census cost the country close to LE100 million, and assuming
that it was conducted rigorously, its results preliminary have very
significant implications indeed. Surprisingly, it offers no figures for
Copts and foreign residents, which should be relevant to planners.
The Census in brief
THE TOTAL population grew by 24.2 per cent since 1996, while the
number of households grew by 35.9 per cent in the same period. Males
outnumber females by nearly two per cent. Divorce has gone up by 39.6
per cent since 1996, illiteracy by 10 per cent; at 29.2 per cent it is
the highest in the Arab world. With more students dropping out of
school, unemployment has risen. One out of five Egyptians live in Cairo,
while border regions are under-populated. Some 6.2 per cent of the
population are over 60 years old, and holders of university degrees
amount to no more than 9.5 per cent of the population, compared to 5.6
in 1996, but the standard of education and its relevance to the job
market have both dropped. Some 11 million buildings, 95.5 per cent of
the total number, are privately owned. Of all housing units, 95 per cent
have running water, 99 per cent have electricity, but only 50 per cent
are connected to a sewerage system.
* The writer is professor of planning at the
University of Alexandria
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